Milwaukee officials look to model potential surge in COVID-19 patients

Milwaukee County officials hope to create their own model to predict the healthcare system’s capacity for a COVID-19 surge.

There were 776 confirmed cases of COVID-19 in the county and 12 deaths as of Wednesday morning, according to a map developed by the county.

Dr. Ben Weston, director of medical services for the Milwaukee County Office of Emergency Management, told reporters Tuesday that they’re looking at developing their own modeling based on a recently released one from the University of Washington.

That model, which broke down projections at the national and state level, found resources being used to address the pandemic in Wisconsin will peak on April 27. It found that Wisconsin faces a shortage in available intensive care unit beds.

Weston said they were reviewing the model’s data and talking with the researchers to better understand their methodology.

“Although models such as these are inherently broad and limited in their accuracy and their ability to predict the future, they nonetheless serve to provide some level of insight on where we might be headed based on other countries and other viruses from the past,” he said.

Weston said they’ve established a team of epidemiologists to understand patterns of COVID-19 in Milwaukee County. The team is working on creating a similar model that’s more specific to the community.

He added that a team of “medical experts and decision-makers from each of our local health systems” is working to produce a plan on how to increase capacity within existing hospitals. That includes maximizing available beds and equipment like ventilators.

“We are laser-focused on our work to prevent a situation of overwhelmed hospital capacity that we are witnessing in places around the world,” he said.

Milwaukee Mayor Tom Barrett said the working group, comprised of representatives from the hospitals and community health centers, is looking at beds beyond traditional hospital rooms, including walk-in clinics.

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